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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving together. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still